PredictionAI

What is PredictionAI?

A prediction market price is a probability the market has agreed on. PredictionAI helps you research the underlying event, form your own estimate, and see where the two disagree — which is the only place an edge can exist. It reads regulated event-contract markets, their prices and their resolution terms, because a contract that resolves differently than you assumed is the most common way a good analysis loses money.

Problems it solves

• Research the event behind a contract
• Form a probability estimate independent of the market price
• See where your estimate and the price disagree
• Read resolution terms before they matter
• Track how a market moved and why

Key capabilities

Probability Analysis

Compare market-implied probability against a researched estimate and show the gap.

Market Screening

Filter a universe of instruments or lots down to those matching stated criteria.

Evidence Trail

Every figure carries the record it came from, so a reader can check the answer instead of trusting it.

Agentic Investigation

Specialist agents pursue a question through several controlled steps rather than answering in one pass.

How it is built

Independent estimate

Research first, price second, so the price does not anchor the analysis.

Resolution terms surfaced

How a contract actually settles is read as part of the analysis.

Edge made explicit

The difference between estimate and price is stated as a number.

How it works

How the work is structured, and what each step's output rests on.

1. 1

   Select the market

   Source

   Read the contract, its price and its resolution terms.

2. 2

   Research the event

   Observed

   Gather evidence bearing on the outcome.

3. 3

   Form an estimate

   Estimate

   Produce an independent probability with its basis stated.

4. 4

   Compare

   AI-inferred

   Show the gap between the estimate and the market price.

5. 5

   Human authorisation

   Human-verified

   Any position is taken by a person.

Example use cases

Each example has its own page you can read and share.

Ask PredictionAI

Illustrative examples. Results depend on your own data.

• “What does this contract actually resolve on?”
• “Where does my estimate differ most from the market?”
• “What evidence would change this probability?”
• “How has this market moved this week, and on what news?”

Security, governance and human control

Where the software deliberately limits itself.

Questions

Does it predict outcomes?

No. It helps you research and form an estimate, and shows where that estimate differs from the market. Estimates are labelled as estimates.

Is this advice?

No. It is research software for regulated event contracts.