PredictionAI demo
Compare market probability with your own estimate
Research an event, form an independent probability, and see the gap against the market price.
The challenge
A market price anchors analysis, so an independent view is rarely formed before the price is seen.
The scenario
An analyst wants their own read on an event before looking at what the market thinks it is worth.
What goes in
- Event contract
- The market, its price and its resolution terms.
What you can ask
Illustrative prompts. Results depend on your own data and are not deterministic.
- “What does this contract actually resolve on?”
- “What is my independent estimate here?”
- “Where does my estimate differ most from the market?”
How Clearception approaches it
How the work is structured. Each step shows what its output is grounded in.
Read the terms
SourceEstablish exactly how the contract settles.
Research independently
ObservedGather evidence bearing on the outcome before consulting the price.
State the gap
EstimateCompare the estimate to the market price as a number.
What you get
The shape of what comes back — not a promised result.
Estimate vs price
EstimateAn independent probability, the market price, and the difference.
Why it matters
- Unanchored analysis
- The estimate is formed before the price is seen.
- Terms understood first
- Resolution surprises are found in research, not at settlement.
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Want to try this with your own work?
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